Be it red or blue: SE Asia’s pivot is true

Red or blue, the next US administration must firmly engage with Southeast Asia and its regional organisation, Asean, to protect its strategic interests.
With the ongoing war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, there is growing concern that the US might not be able to give sufficient attention to this part of the world. As the region’s economic power rises, so do its strategic values, and the new US administration’s key challenge is to restore the region’s confidence in the US as a reliable and long-term partner.
In addition, the US needs to dispel the idea that US policy is solely motivated by “a craving for American primacy” and shift its rhetoric away from a lopsided focus on US-China competition. Washington should concentrate on specific issues like climate change and security without framing them as part of the US-China rivalry. This will help Southeast Asian countries see the US as a constructive partner as they would not be pressured to “choose” sides.
These are some of the valuable recommendations in the latest report, “Critical Issues for the US in Southeast Asia in 2025”, published by the Asia Foundation.
Various American think tanks prepare policy briefs and recommendations for the incoming US administration every four years, weeks before the scheduled early November election in the US. Their reports provide useful ideas for policymakers in the Capitol and Congress.
After the Trump administration withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017, President Joe Biden worked hard to retain America-led economic cooperation. In 2022, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) was set up, comprising 14 members including seven Asean members. Since then, good progress has been registered among the members, except on the trade pillar.
The report urged the incoming administration to have a robust trade agenda by finalising the IPEF trade pillar. The framework would impact rules on investment, intellectual property and digital regulations. It will also augur well for Asean’s digital economic goals and address artificial intelligence regulations. Asean is now negotiating the world’s first Digital Economic Framework Agreement, which will be finalised next year during Malaysia’s Asean chair. The region’s digital economy is projected to exceed US$300 billion by 2025 and upwards of US$1 trillion by the end of this decade.
In the post-Covid world, strengthening supply chains for strategic products such as rare minerals and semiconductors has been Washington’s obsession. This includes securing mineral agreements with the region’s countries that would qualify for tax benefits under the Inflation Reduction Act.
The report reiterated that such an arrangement would help US companies, diversify supply sources, and encourage Southeast Asian nations to collaborate on other issues. The US should also work on sustainable mining and processing practices in the region.
As far as the energy transition is concerned, the new US administration should assist Southeast Asia with clean energy projects. For instance, by backing energy transition partnerships in Indonesia and Vietnam, the US can create opportunities for American businesses and workers in clean energy exports. The US should also invest in pilot projects like battery storage and hydropower across the region.
On security issues, the report calls for better strategic communications on new security cooperation. The US should clearly explain the goals of new partnerships, like the US-Australia-Japan-Philippines maritime cooperation, to avoid misunderstandings and gain regional support. More open dialogue can reassure Southeast Asia that these initiatives aim to support shared interests and are not meant to exclude or provoke any country.
The report further recommends strengthening support for the Quad’s Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) programme. More resources are needed to improve Southeast Asian and Pacific Island nations’ monitoring capabilities. In this connection, the US could work with private companies to bring in advanced technologies like quantum sensing and AI to improve data analysis. In addition, the US could increase staff at regional information centres to train allies on new tech and information sharing. The Quad should also invest jointly in more repair vessels to protect undersea cables essential for the internet and energy.
The report recommends prioritising the Myanmar crisis in American foreign policy. This situation poses severe humanitarian and regional stability risks and could lead to a divided, unstable state or a new federal democracy. Although the US has criticised and sanctioned Myanmar’s military or Tatmadaw, it has not prioritised the issue. Moving forward, the US should increase its efforts by providing more support to pro-democracy groups, appointing a special envoy, and coordinating with neighbouring countries and allies like Asean, the EU, Japan and South Korea to resolve the crisis.
Finally, the US should focus on stopping cyber scams in Southeast Asia, as these scams rob and harm people in both the region and the US. As such, Washington should prioritise it for law enforcement, international agencies, and US embassies to tackle this issue. Washington should also take a multilateral approach involving Asean and China to develop a strong plan. The International Law Enforcement Academy in Bangkok, which Washington helped to set up in 1998, could help drive these efforts.